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Yen 'Higher' As Carry-Trades Unwind.


 

11/10/2008

Japanese Yen (JYZ8):

The JY opened lower at 1.0093 after the Nikkei 225 surged on the report that China's cabinet pledged a $586 B economic stimulus package. Carry-traders took advantage of the increase in risk to short JY and buy higher yielding major foreign currencies. As U.S. equity markets discounted the China stimulus package, carry traders took profit/risk off the table, sending Prices to our Pivot level of 1.0224 at mid-day. After hitting a daily Hi of 1.0255, prices drifted lower towards the close to end the session at 1.0221, up 21 tics. The close above the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'positive' w/ neutral momentum indicators. From 'risk-taking' to 'risk-aversion'. Lower equities could benefit the JY. A higher open should find Resistance at 1.0305 and 1.0378, while an open below 1.0181 may find Support at 1.0108 and .9984.

Dollar Index (DXZ8):

The DX opened lower at 85.73 as higher equity markets lessen the need for the 'safe-haven' quality of the DX. Weakness in Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Google and General Motors weighed on equity prices and overshadowed the Chinese stimulus package, sending traders to the safe-haven of Treasuries and pushing the DX to a mid-day level of 86.53. As equity markets continued lower towards the close, the DX held at our Pivot level and ended the session at 86.42, down 3 tics. The s/t trend remains 'positive' w/ neutral momentum indicators. The 'pennant' formation may indicate a break-out in the direction of the 'trend', which could push the DX higher. A higher open should find Resistance at 86.78 and 87.15, while an open below 86.16 may find Support at 85.79 and 85.17.

British Pound (BPZ8):

The BP opened higher at 1.5761 against the weaker DX, before trailing equity prices lower to a mid-day level of 1.5563. Flight to safety into Treasuries sparked a DX rally against most major foreign currency markets. The BP drifted lower towards the close to end the session at 1.5568 , down 101 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/ weak momentum indicators. Pressure to lower rates further may continue to weigh on the BP as the global 'slow-down' weighs on the economy. A lower open may find Support at 1.5467 and 1.5365, while an open above 1.5765 and 1.5961.

Canadian Dollar (CDZ8):

The CD opened higher at .8523 as energy/metals prices rose against the weaker DX. As the equity markets gave back early gains, the DX moved higher and pressured the CD to a mid-day Lo of .8358. A mid-day bounce in crude/gold helped the CD, before the DX rose into the close, sending the CD to a close of .8365, down 44 tics. The close below the 9-day MA changes the s/t trend to 'negative' w/ neutral momentum indicators. A lower open may find Support at .8288 and .8211, while an open above .8430 should find Resistance at .8507 and .8649.

Euro Currency (ECZ8):

The EC opened higher at 1.2872 and rose to a morning Hi of 1.2901, before trailing lower as questions about the Chinese stimulus package and negative news from Goldman Sachs and Google sent traders to the safe-haven of Treasuries and the DX. Prices retraced to a mid-day level of 1.2716, before bouncing into the afternoon session. DX strength continued to weigh on the EC, sending prices lower towards the close to end the day at 1.2735, up 6 tics. The s/t trend remains 'negative' w/neutral momentum indicators. The triangle formation should favor the 'negative' trend. A lower open may find Support at 1.2663 and 1.2592, while an open above 1.2785 should find Resistance at 1.2856 and 1.2978.


 


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About the author


Bob Kozak, Currency Futures Analyst
Alaron, www.TheCommodityConsultant.com

Bob Kozak is the Senior Currency Futures Analyst  at Alaron Trading. He has been involved in the financial markets since 1978, when he was recruited as portfolio strategist for a major Wall Street firm. With a degree in Mathematics from the University of Massachusetts, he was drawn towards technical analysis. He moved into the retail sector as a Certified Financial Planner, assisting clients in structuring an investment portfolio suitable for their particular needs, emphasizing income and risk management. A unique opportunity to mentor under a former Chairman of the Chicago Board of Trade enticed Bob into the commodities arena. Bob eventually managed the office of his mentor, before the firm was purchased and relocated to Chicago.

Bob follows most futures markets using primarily Technical Analysis, and takes advantage of the strong correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and those futures purchased in Dollars. You can request a FREE 2-week trail subscription of 

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by calling Bob at 800-462-4691 or via e-mail at bkozak@alaron.com

Bob has been a frequent contributor to many national publications, including Futures Magazine, Dow Jones Newswire, and Bloomberg FX -TV.

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