GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar paired losses versus the European currencies and managed to close higher versus the lower yielding franc and yen. Trading remains impaired by low liquidity and the end of month on Friday won’t improve conditions. The contraction for third quarter GDP was not as bad as expected, but it confirms the start of a debilitating recession. The dollar remains in a medium-term uptrend against the European currencies and a downtrend versus the yen, but this pattern will be more visible staring November. Bon chance!
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell from an 8-day high after a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-day moving average held, and closed little changed on Thursday. The medium-term bias remains bearish.
Immediate support is at 1.2805. Below 1.2695, distant support is now at 1.2335.
Initial resistance is at 1.3060. Above 1.3200, resistance is now seen at 1.3260. Distant resistance is at 1.3570 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.
Oscillators are bullish.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with significant downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen climbed up on Thursday, but got stuck in an inside range. My model remains long, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish.
Immediate resistance is at 99.70. Above 100.50, resistance is now seen at 103.05.
Initial support is at 97.25. The next level is 95.70. Below 94.40 there is Friday’s low of 90.94.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar marched higher on Thursday and my model remains long. The upside is limited, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.
Initial resistance remains at 1.6635. The next level is 1.6760. Distant resistance looms at 1.6940.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.6355. The next level is at 1.6090. Below 1.5735, distant support is at 1.5270 from a pivot low.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with significant downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss reversed from a three-week low to close higher on Thursday. The medium-term risk remains on the upside.
Initial resistance is at 1.1420. Above 1.1500, the next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873.
Immediate support is at 1.1310. The next level is 1.1180. Distant support comes at 1.1055.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
