GFT Daily Market Commentary

Ongoing rumors/fears of a possible default by large institutional investors/hedge funds ensured another rally of the dollar the European currencies and a sharp slide against the yen.  A weak IFO report and a seemingly strong US housing report didn’t do much of an impact, as the problem is much bigger. The US consumer confidence cannot be expect to be good, so the same pattern seen in the currency markets on Monday should be seen today as well.
  
 

Euro/dollar

Once again, euro/dollar remains weak after sinking to a low for the downtrend. The medium-term bias remains bearish. 
 
Immediate support is at 1.2335. The next level is 1.2140. Distant support is now at 1.1980.  
 
Above 1.2565, resistance is seen at 1.2685. The next level is at 1.3040. Only a break above 1.3260 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen remained under pressure on Monday after collapsing to a ten-year low on Friday.  The medium-term outlook remains bearish. 
 
Good support is still in place at 92.25.  The next level is Friday’s low of 90.94. 

Immediate resistance is at 93.70. The next level is 95.40. Above 96.60, resistance is perched at 98.30.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar remains soft after nailing a six-year low on Friday.  My model remains short.  The downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish. 
 
Immediate support is at 1.5420. The next level is at 1.5269. Distant support is at 1.4865.
 
Initial resistance is at 1.5075. The next level is 1.6040. Distant resistance looms at 1.6285.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss fell on Monday after surging to a one-year high on Friday. My model went promptly short below 1.1591.  It should edge higher soon. The medium-term risk remains on the upside.
 
Immediate support is still seen at 1.1520 and 1.1485.  The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205. 
 
Initial resistance is at 1.1600. The next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873. 
 
Oscillators are rising.

 
NEAR-TERM: Mixed 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish