Friday, November 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil and U.S. stock index prices.
JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Have you looked at the lumber futures market's price action this week? There were two limit-up price days in a row that sent lumber to a five-month high. Price action in lumber the past six weeks has seen a steep uptrend develop. Lumber's recent price action is a clue that U.S. economic activity is on the rebound. Copper is another market that is a good indicator of worldwide economic activity. Copper futures this week also hit a fresh 14-month high.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today, on more profit-taking from recent gains. No serious chart damage has occurred this week, but the bulls do not want to see bearish weekly low closes in the stock indexes today.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down, too. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,082.50 and then at 1,075.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,095.00 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,079.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:------------- 1,096.70
1st Support:-------- 1,084.10
2nd Support:-------- 1,073.90
1st Resistance:----- 1,106.90
2nd Resistance:----- 1,119.50
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day, but has turned down. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,755.75 and then at 1,750.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,773.75 and then at 1,785.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,752.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:------------ 1,777.20
1st Support:------ 1,752.10
2nd Support:------ 1,733.90
1st Resistance:--- 1,795.35
2nd Resistance:--- 1,802.25
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday's low of 10,238 and then more stops just below support at 10,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,300 and then at Thursday's high of 10,350. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,112
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:------------ 10,305
1st Support:------ 10,260
2nd Support:------ 10,193
1st Resistance:--- 10,372
2nd Resistance:--- 10,417
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Bullish weekly high closes today would provide the bulls with better upside technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120 23/32 and then at 120 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 121 7/32 and then at Thursday's high of 121 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 24/32
December U.S. T-Bonds
137 23/32--lifetime high
123 25/32--Previous Month's high
121 25/32--second pivot point resistance
121 11/32--previous day's high
121 10/32--first pivot point resistance
120 28/32--pivot point
120 27/32--previous day's close
120 26/32--4-day moving average
120 14/32--previous day's low
120 13/32--first pivot point support
119 31/32--second pivot point support
119 24/32--9-day moving average
119 13/32--18-day moving average
118 23/32--100-day moving average
117 25/32--previous month's low
110 --lifetime low
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 120.00.0 and then at 120.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 119.21.0 and then at Thursday's low of 119.12.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119.07.0
December U.S. T-Notes
125 28/32--lifetime high
120 6/32--second pivot point resistance
119 29/32--first pivot point resistance
119 29/32--previous month's high
119 29/32--previous day's high
119 21/32--previous day's close
119 21/32--pivot point
119 20/32--4-day moving average
119 12/32--first pivot point support
119 12/32--previous day's low
119 6/32--9-day moving average
119 4/32--second pivot point support
118 21/32--18-day moving average
117 3/32--100-day moving average
116 28/32--previous month's low
107 3/32--lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today, on short covering. Bears still have the firm near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.00 and then at 76.25. Shorter-term support is seen at 75.50 and then at the overnight low of 75.28. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 75.83. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a weekly low close today would provide the bears with fresh downside technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4799 and then at 1.4750. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4850 and then at 1.4900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4898. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
GOLD
Gold is lower in early dealings today, on more profit taking and amid a firmer U.S. dollar index. Gold bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues of a market top being close at hand. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,140.00 and then at the overnight high of $1,148.10. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,132.50 and then at this week's low of $1,127.80. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,131.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are lower again early today on more profit taking. Bulls are fading again and do not want to see a bearish weekly low close today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $77.00 and then just above resistance at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $76.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the November low of $75.57. Today's key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $75.70. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, on more profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Grain bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The key outside markets are in a bearish posture for the grains again today, as crude oil and stock index futures prices are weaker, while the U.S. dollar index is firmer. These outside markets are still the main drivers of the grain markets.
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