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General Morning Commentary


LIVE CATTLE:  Dec

The entire cattle complex was dreadfully slow yesterday.  December was the biggest benefactor as most of the day consisted of buying December and selling February.   Today's trade will tighten up and the value range will be between $83.75 and $83.52 with a pivot point of $83.60.  Below $83.52 the market is capable backing off to $83.07 and possibly $82.87.  A close back below $82.87 would be considered bearish with the market then trading down to $81.82.  On the upside if trade is able to move above $83.75 then look for an extension of this correction to reach up to $84.10-32, $84.32 being a .382 fib retracement.        

Support: 83.52 & 83.07     Resistance: 83.75 & 84.10      Long Term Trend: Down below $84.77      Short Term Trend: Down below 84.20

FEEDER CATTLE:   Jan

Feeder cattle traded briefly below early support of $92.25 and registered a new low for the month, before settling just above support late into the session.  The feeders seem to be running out of willing sellers and could be setting up to relieve their oversold condition.  Today below $92.57 the market stays negative with $91.70 as the next support level.  Above $92.57 short covering could help lift the market back up to $93.30.  The feeder market can endure a large correction and still technically remain bearish.                 

Support:  92.05 & 91.70      Resistance:  92.57 & 93.30     Long Term Trend: Down below 94.87      Short Term Trend: Down below 94.15

CORN:   Dec

Once again the corn market was supported on minor dips in yesterday's trading.   Overnight trade was slightly lower, the U.S. Dollar was higher, and Crude Oil was lower.  Even with the big influence of new money the market has yet to just really get moving above 400.  Today an open below 398 could foster a larger break back to 393-390.  A close below this area then allows for a larger correction back to 376.  If trade holds 398 and pushes back through 401 then expect a move up to 408.  A daily close above 408 would be considered bullish with the next leg up expected into the 425 area. 

Support: 398, 393, & 390     Resistance: 401, 404, & 408     Long Term Trend: Up above 390     Short Term Trend: Up above 393

Hogs:  Feb

Feb hogs recovered from a mid-session break before rallying back late and testing early highs.  The market is technically friendly above daily support at $61.00, but has some near term resistance at $62.62.  Trade that is able to push above $62.62 would then trade to $63.60, in which above the latter the market starts another leg higher most likely to new highs.  A failure to move through $62.62 today will set the market up for a test of $61.80, and a daily close below this and the market falls back to $61.00.  A daily close below $61.00 and the market drops back to $59.50. 

Support: 62.22 & 61.80     Resistance: 62.62 & 63.60      Long Term Trend: Down below 62.62      Short Term Trend: Down below 63.60

  

Brock Thompson Trading, 2525 Lakeview Dr. Amarillo, TX 79109, brock@brockthompsontrading.com (806)-350-2400

Make note that intra-day support and resistance prices change throughout the day, so if you have any questions during market hours please give me a call for an update.    

These forecasts are solely the opinion of the author and make no representation as to how the market will actually trade.  There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options; therefore you should carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you in the light of your financial situation. 


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About the author


Brock was raised in the Texas Panhandle, where his family has been involved in the cow/calf business for many years.  Brock graduated from Texas A&M University in 1995 with a degree in Animal Science with special emphasis on Risk Management.  After college Brock moved back to the Texas Panhandle where he has been involved in the feedlot industry both as an employee and currently as an owner.  He serves on the TCFA Marketing Committee and the NCBA Tax and Finance Committee.

Brock started trading commodities in 2001 with a large IB in Amarillo.  In 2006, Brock opened his own IB office.  He is a registered Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) and manages money under his Technical Trend Trading Program.

Brock holds his multi-engine instrument pilots license.  He is very involved in local organizations as well as his church and children's activities.  Brock is married to Berkley and they have two sons.  They reside in Bushland, TX.

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