MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR FRIDAY, NOV. 13, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

PLEASE NOTE: I will not be in the office next week. My calls are being forwarded to Rick Alexander who will be happy to help you.

Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline. The Market Update is designed to not only help you learn how to trade but also improve your trading approach. By reviewing technically all the major markets as well as give trade suggestions that include the reasons for the trades, you're able to follow and/or compare my work with yours. Or, if you don't have the time, as many don‘t, simply use my guidelines for placing your own trades.

TRADE ALERTS:Sell December mini silver. Sell 17.140 stop. Protective stop 17.795. Potential projection 15.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1. The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2. On both the monthly and weekly charts, silver is in resistance.
3. The weekly chart formed a key reversal top four weeks ago.
4. The weekly chart has a sell signal.
5. On the daily chart, silver is in resistance. That resistance goes back to mid 2008. It was from that level that it produced an extensive sell-off.
6. On the daily chart, silver appears to be forming a preliminary head and shoulders top. The potential right shoulder formed a double top today.
7. A sell signal would push silver under the 20 day moving average
8. Today was an outside day that can trigger a signal and market direction.

METALS COMMENTS:

DEC COPPER: There is only one thing new with this market. It closed under the 20 day MA for the first time today since early October. Not good. It could be a warning sign that copper could be setting up for a sell-off. I tend to lean in that direction even though it is still stuck in the same range. Just watching. Closed

DEC MINI GOLD: It formed a key reversal top today after making a new high. That could be a warning for a sell-off. Bear in mind the near term projection on the daily chart was met and exceeded - suggesting an over bought market. Also, the last four sell-offs all occurred after a new high was made followed by a key reversal top the same day. There is not any real support in this market until 1065.00. Closed 1106.60, down 8.00.DEC MINI SILVER: I continue to try to short silver. I'll try again tomorrow. See Trade Alert for details. Closed 17.265, down .272.

ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:

DEC MINI CRUDE OIL: It triggered a sell today. I bought it back at 76.925 as that was hovering in a previous support area. Today's low 76.52. Closed 76.94, down 2.34.
Position: Short 78.350 (11.12). Exit 76.925 (11.12). Profit $712.50.

DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN: I sold it today. Keep stops at 112.050. Closed 110.73, down 52.
Position: Short 10.630 (11.12).
Projection: 106.000.

DEC SWISS FRANC: I attempted to short it yesterday. It rallied instead and triggered a buy. That was negated today and the market has continued to follow through in the new direction. Today's low 98.11. The swiss has also formed a huge double top and a key reversal top yesterday. It also closed under the 20 day moving average. It could be setting up for a big sell-off. Closed 98.44, down 65.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX: It formed a key reversal bottom yesterday after selling off to 74.855. Today it rallied up to 75.880. That is where the 20 day MA intersects and that finished that rally. If it rallies over that tomorrow and holds we could be looking at a near term bottom. Just watching. Closed 75.695, up .435.

DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY: It attempted again yesterday to get over the resistance I referred to in my last Update. It did not succeed. It is strange but the daily chart for the euro fx and the swiss are almost identical. The fx triggered a buy yesterday and that was negated today with further follow through. It sold off under the 20 day moving average with a low today at 148.200. This could be a 1, 2, 3 top formation. It also formed a key reversal top yesterday. It could be setting up for a big sell-off. Closed 148.630, down .990.

DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR: It rallied to its 96.00 resistance level and stopped. It sold off to 94.55 today. That is where the 20 day moving average intersects. It has some support around 94.50 but the big support is down at 94.00. Unlike the other currencies, it has a lot of support below it. Closed 94.80, down 64.

DEC 10 YR. NOTES: Their rally fizzled out today near yesterday's high. They then sold off to their 20 day MA and rallied and almost reached the high end of the day's range. That surprised me. Just watching. Closed 118.295, down .030.

DEC BONDS: I attempted to short them yesterday. They rallied instead to 119.14. Today's high could not take that out and they sold off to 117.10. That did not last. They rallied again and closed near the high of the day's range. The only difference between them and the notes is that they are under their 20 day MA while the notes are above it.
Closed 118.29, down .15.