MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
(TRADES FOR WED., NOV. 11,, 2009)
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com

PLEASE NOTE:  I will be out of the office next week.  There will not be a Market Update during that time. 

Emotion is more your enemy than any market will ever be. My Market Update employs a trading plan that a trader can understand and trades that have reasons so that a learning process evolves - helping you combat emotion and establish discipline.

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TRADE ALERTS:

Sell December mini silver.  Sell 17.090 stop.  Protective stop 17.660.  Potential projection 15.500.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2.  On both the monthly and weekly charts, silver is in resistance.
3.  The weekly chart formed a key reversal top four weeks ago.
4.  The weekly chart has a sell signal.
5.  On the daily chart, silver is in resistance.  That resistance goes back to mid 2008.  It was from that level that it produced an extensive sell-off.
6.  On the daily chart, silver appears to be forming a preliminary head and shoulders top.
7.  A sell signal would push silver under the 20 day moving average.

Sell December mini crude oil.  Sell 77.725 stop.  Protective stop 80.520.  Potential projection 74.000. 
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  Both the monthly and the weekly charts are in resistance.
2.  On the monthly chart, crude has attempted to get over the 20 day MA for the last two months without success.
3.  The daily chart has a previous sell signal that is still intact.
4.  On the daily chart, crude rallied up to the 80.000 resistance and stopped.  That has been a major problem area for over two weeks.  It stopped it again today.
5.  On the daily chart, a sell signal would push crude under the 20 day moving average.
6.  Crude triggered a buy today.  A sell signal would negate that buy.  Normally when a market does so that quickly, it follows through in the new direction.

Sell December mini Japanese yen.  Sell 110.670 stop.  Protective stop 111.600.  Potential projection 106.000.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  The monthly chart formed a key reversal top last month - suggesting a trend change from up to down.
2.  Both the monthly and weekly charts are in resistance.  
3.  On the daily chart, rallies continue to be contained by the yen's downtrend line formed since the early October high.  It has been pushing up against that trend line again both Friday and today.
4.  On the daily chart, the yen formed a key reversal top last Monday that is still intact. 
5.  On the daily chart, the yen violated its uptrend line in mid October - suggesting a trend change from down to up.  It has not been able to rally back over it since.
6.   A sell signal would negate a buy triggered today.  Normally when a market does so that quickly, it follows through in the new direction.

Sell December swiss franc.  Sell 98.86 stop.  Protective stop 99.43. Potential projection 96.50.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  Both the monthly and weekly charts are in resistance.
2.  The daily chart has a key reversal top formed in late October.  That is still intact.
3.  On the daily chart, a sell signal would push the swiss under the 99.00 support.
4.  On the daily chart, the swiss has attempted to test the contract high and has not been able to do so to date - suggesting the development of a potential 1, 2, 3 top formation.
5.   Today was an inside day that can trigger a signal and market direction. 

Sell December bonds.  Sell 117.21 stop.  Protective stop 119.12.  Potential projection 115.20.
Reasons for the Trade:
1.  On the monthly chart, bonds formed a major key reversal top last month at the 123.00 long term resistance.
2.  On the monthly chart, bonds sold off and closed under the 20 day MA last month.  They continue to trade under it.  That is negative.
3.  The weekly chart has a sell signal.
4.  The weekly chart sold off under the 20 day MA last week and closed under it.
5.  On the weekly chart, bonds violated the uptrend formed since the early June low three weeks ago - suggesting a trend change from down to up.
6.  On the daily chart, bonds formed a major key reversal top in early Oct.  They have been in a near term downtrend since with two waves down.  The rally that topped on 11-3 has the potential to be a set up for a third wave down.
7.  On the daily chart, bonds have traded under the 20 day MA for some time.  Attempts to rally over it have failed as it did again today.
8.  A sell signal would negate a buy triggered today.  Normally when a market does so that quickly, it follows through in the new direction.

METALS COMMENTS:

 DEC COPPER:  This market is getting boring.  It continues to go sideways and continues to become more narrow in its range.  What is odd is that for months it churned around between 270 and 300.  It started to break out to the upside and reached 306.90.  It then backed off and is now going sideways between 290 and 305 approximately.  Whatever it is building up to, it should be big.  Just watching.  Closed 296.15, down .60.

DEC MINI GOLD:  It met my near term projection at 1110.00 yesterday.  The high was 1111.70.  It formed an inside day today and has attempted to rally all day.  I prefer to watch.  Closed 1102.50, up 1.10.

DEC MINI SILVER:   I attempted to short it.  It rallied instead to 17.780.  The potential head and shoulders top is still intact in spite of that.  After making that high yesterday, it sold off today.  I will try to short it tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 17.222, down .258.

ENERGIES, CURRENCIES & BONDS:

DEC MINI CRUDE OIL:  I shorted it last Friday and took the profit the same day.  It tried to get over 80.000 resistance again and failed.  I'll try to short it again tomorrow as it did not reach my price today.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 79.05, down 38.
Position:  Short 78.80 (11.6).  Exit 78.05 (11.6).  Profit $375.

DEC MINI JAPANESE YEN:  Stops were reached Friday.  I tried to short it today but the price was not reached.  I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 111.43, up 29.
Position:  Short 109.95 (11.4).  Exit 111.35 (11.6).  Loss $893.75.

DEC SWISS FRANC:  A trade could be developing.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 99.23, up 2.

DEC DOLLAR INDEX:   It has again tested the 75.000 support on the daily and long term charts and is attempting to hold.  It held it yesterday and today in spite of a new contract low of 75.025 yesterday.  Until there is more to suggest a bottom, I'm just watching.  Closed 75.110, down .024.

DEC MINI EUROCURRENCY:  I attempted to short it Monday.  It rallied instead and formed a double top today.  On the weekly chart, it attempted to get over the 150.000 resistance a couple of weeks ago.  It could not do it and sold off.  But that did not follow through.  Sure enough, it turned around and is trying again for that resistance.  Doing so that quickly,  I suspect it will try to get over it this time.
Closed 149.790, down .170.

DEC CANADIAN DOLLAR:  Last time I pointed out the conflict between the long term and daily chart.  So far, the daily chart is winning out!  It is back over 94.00 resistance.  The huge sell-off that the CD had (it bottomed in early Nov) appears to be to test that breakout from that consolidation it formed earlier in Aug. through Sept.  It rallied over the 20 day MA today too.  It should test 96.00 near term at least.  Closed 95.31, up 46.

DEC 10 YR. NOTES:  Stops were reached last Friday.  They have rallied since and is now back up to previous resistance around 118.280.  Watching closely to sell again.  Closed 118.185, up .150.
Position:  Short 117.275 (11.4).  Exit 118.11 (11.6).  Loss $484.37.

DEC BONDS:  I tried to short them today but the rallied.  The rally was stopped by the 20 day moving average and they sold off. I'll try again tomorrow.  See Trade Alert for details.  Closed 118.13, down 3.

Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.  Opinions are subject to change at any time and are not a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell futures contracts or options on futures contracts.  The information contained in this message has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  All suggested trades are based on technical signals/indicators and do not include slippage or cost.  Not all trades suggested are taken.  Results are based on what the signal indicates not necessarily an actual trade.  Actual results may vary.